The Indian electorate’s “Ghajini” style short term memory loss

Disgraced in the 1970s, celebrated in the 1990s…

revolution-30590_960_7201974: Gujarat’s Navnirman Andolan led to Jayaprakash Narayan’s Total Revolution which led to a nationwide agitation which led to Emergency which led to the first non-Congress government at the Centre. One of the casualties of this chain of events was the disgracing of Congress Chief Minister Chimanbhai Patel who had to quit. Women came in the streets swearing that they would not name their children after Chimanbhai as donkeys were paraded elsewhere with his name painted on them.

1990: Chimanbhai becomes CM again and that too with support of BJP, which was part of the above-mentioned first non-Congress government.

Even a brutal dictator is eventually loved…

dictator-2161890_960_7201975-77: Prime Minister Indira Gandhi declares dictatorship in India (Emergency), terrorizes the nation, totally clamps down on freedom of speech and expression, turns all opposition parties into dummies, tortures thousands, imprisons lakhs and conducts millions (yes, millions) of forced sterilizations, some which go wrong and some which are conducted on young men without children.

1980: Indira storms back with a whopping 374 seats, bungles Punjab and attacks the revered Golden Temple, sees the Nellie Massacre on her watch, which may have seen 10,000 killed in a single day, still becomes a much worshipped and loved figure right up to today.

The most incompetent start ever and yet…

1984 October end to December beginning: In just his first 5 weeks on the job, Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi saw the anti-Sikh riots in which crores of property was burnt, thousands were killed and lakhs terrorized and then the Bhopal Gas Tragedy seeing thousands killed and lakhs injured and offending Chairman and CEO of Union Carbide, Warren Anderson, was allowed to go scot free.

1984 December end: Rajiv wins a whopping 400+ seats in the general elections, a record in Indian democracy. In the above mentioned riots leaders accused of leading mobs are given plum posts instead of being investigated against.

2018: One of the above mentioned accused becomes the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh replacing someone who is popular and has solid development credentials.

Bringing you peace and yet…

communism-17143_6401948 onwards: Communist terrorist violence raging all across India under the names of Telangana Rebellion or Naxalism or Maoism or party violence and one of these states happen to be Chhattisgarh.

2018: The Chhattisgarh Chief Minister against all odds almost eradicates Naxalite violence and brings a solid development agenda to the state. In reply the electorate give his rival party replacement (nobody even knows who that will be at the time of voting) a landslide.

How it all began…

Gandhi pacifist-71445_960_7201947: The downright bungling by the duo of Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru led to the killing of a million during Partition and the displacement of millions. Everyone knew that the riots were coming but Gandhi-Nehru didn’t have the wisdom-guts-whatever to postpone the Partition, secure the border or hold the British Army accountable to mitigate the tragedy. The whole world had seen World War 2 and global opinion and help could have been had to prevent another tragedy. Gandhi was after all a global superstar!

2018: Nehru won every election in his life even though he did hardly much for India and well into 2018 both are worshiped and the above thing is not even debated upon, let alone condemned!

The 7 avatars of Pappu

Congress President and great 2019 Liberal Hope Rahul Gandhi is really bad software which keeps updated with endless versions. Nobody has probably received more image makeovers than him…

1. The Sphinx (Pre-2004)

Sphinx egypt-1179196_960_720The Nehru-Gandhi Dynasty is treated like royalty and shrouded in secrecy. Their Right to Privacy trumps the fundamental rights of 1.36 billion Indians. Before 2004 nobody knew anything about both Pappu and sister Priyanka and who would enter politics and whether both of them would.

Pappu was treated with kid gloves and travelled all over the world in his private cocoon, the security of which was sponsored by the Government of India. He was always seen as a future Prime Minister of India, though who was always in Priyanka’s shadow as she had captured the public imagination at that time.

2. The Gentleman (2004)

Suited man-3022704_960_720Pappu entered politics with a bang. A great debut. A win in Amethi. A Congress Prime Minister. After his mother turned down the Prime Minister’s post, he officially became the Heir Apparent and got far more respect in the Congress party than Prime Minister Manmohan ever could.

Pappu cultivated a calm gentlemanly political narrative and rarely got angry or engaged too much with any politician or media house. Then he got a triple whammy in the 2007 elections. He was promoted to Congress General Secretary, Chairperson of Indian Youth Congress and National Students Union of India.

3. The Statesman (2009)

Podium-1889056_960_720This is probably his peak. Pappu campaigned in many Lok Sabha constituencies and Congress saw an unexpected jump from 145 to 206 seats. The media and public went with the Singh is King Nuclear Deal narrative, but that was thrown into the dustbin within the Congress and full credit was given to Pappu.

In fact some even boasted that Manmohan would be kicked upstairs to the India President’s post in 2012, Pappu would be made Prime Minister and lead the Congress to 272+ seats in the 2014 elections. Many bought into this narrative.

4. The Angry Young Man (Run up to 2014)

Angry emoticon-1669804_960_720However that fell apart in 2010 with the Commonwealth Games scam which looked as damaging as Bofors at that time. However 2011 proved to be worse with the 2G scam and Anna Hazare’s August Kranti. It was all over by the 2012 Coalgate scam.

Pappu was protected. The party now became scared to announce him as Prime Ministerial candidate for 2014. Since the people were angry, Pappu was presented as the new Angry Young Man. He would roll up his sleeves, sport a stubble, rant and rave like a commoner and even tear up ordinances on a public stage.

But the Indian public in general and Twitter in particular saw him more of a comedian than a real life version of Amitabh Bachchan.

5. The Confused Young Man (2014 onward)

question road-sign-63983_960_720Everyone expected the BJP to win and Congress to lose, but the sheer magnitude of the loss shocked everyone. The lowest Lok Sabha seats the Congress ever got before 2014 was 114 and the highest the BJP got was 182.

So for the BJP to thrash Congress 282-44 was unprecedented and threw the Grand Old Party off guard. And also Pappu and his advisors? Was he the Great Unifier that would bring all the opposition together and challenge Modi? Or was he the Lone Ranger.

Was he the #KhaatPeCharcha “commoner” who would resonate with the masses? Was he the Angry Young Man Sequel returning to his rolled up sleeves and stubble ranting and raving at the establishment? Well he kept changing like a chameleon and the random changing colours made everyone’s head spin. Then he was also presented as a janeudhari Brahmin to appeal to the masses!

6. The Congress President (2017)

Tick mark-1013981_960_720Pappu paas ho gaya! Whether you like it or not, Pappu finally became the top ranking opposition leader. Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati are powerless. Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha are no more. Nitish Kumar is with NDA and KCR may go that way too after 2019. Chandrababu Naidu has accepted Pappu as his master. Arvind Kejriwal is a bigger joke. Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee are confined to their respective states.

With Sonia Gandhi stepping down from the party President’s post, Pappu is finally the undisputed numero uno in Opposition India. Of course it’s not that his personal stature has grown, but the fact that everyone has shrunk around him!

7. The Great Hope (2019)

superhero-2503808_960_720Make no mistake. The media, intellectuals and Liberals still hate Prime Minister Narendra Modi with all their hearts and souls. In the run up to the 2019 general elections, all of Pappu’s gaffes, jokes, mistakes, foh pahz, misdemeanours… will be totally forgotten and he will be presented fresh for the umpteenth time as the Great Hope of 2019 (the Great Hope of 2014 that was created in 2009 will be simply repackaged).

Why the Indian Congress is its own biggest enemy

aged-2181887_960_720When we got Independence, the Congress Party was the Freedom Movement and the Freedom Movement was the Congress Party. They seemed destined to rule forever and could have been in power today, but nobody spoils the fortunes of the party like itself.

A look at some of these things…

Congress was invincible till the 1970s, but imposed Emergency and that created the Janata Party which became the first ever non-Congress government at the Centre.

It has been more than 40 years since Emergency. And today it could well be called the most disastrous move it made in retrospect. Till 1975 the Congress strode like a colossus at the Centre. No other party could dream of even being a strong Opposition let alone a ruling dispensation for at the Centre. Then Indira Gandhi gave the rest of the parties a huge lifeline.

Indira imposed the Emergency and this led to her fall and the first non-Congress government at the Centre in 1977. The Janata Party may have disintegrated in 1980, but its successor Janata Dal and all its factions ruled first from 1989-91 and then 1996-98.

prison-553836_960_720But the biggest result of the Emergency is rarely discussed: The formation of the BJP. The RSS was formed in 1925 and was rudderless after Independence for some time. The Bharatiya Jana Sangh was formed in 1951 but wasn’t that effective till 1977.

The RSS powered the protests that led to the Emergency, the 1977 government gave a solid political direction to the Sangh Parivar and it marched on after 1980 to become the dominant political party in India in 2014 having first tasted power in 1996 at the Centre.

Congress became invincible yet again after the Janata Party imploded, but created the Ramjanmabhoomi problem thereby boosting the BJP.

Under Jawaharlal Nehru, Ram idols appeared in the mosque premises. Under Rajiv Gandhi, the locks to the complex were removed to counter the Shah Bano case appeasement. Under PV Narasimha Rao the Sangh Parivar managed to knock down the domes right under the Centre’s eyes.

The Ramjanmabhoomi problem was created and sustained by the Congress and maximum progress happened only due to the action/inaction of various Congress Prime Ministers. But only one entity benefited politically from all of the above: The Sangh Parivar.

Durga Puja 2645104_960_720Congress brutalized the Naxalites and hence is out of West Bengal for nearly 40 plus years.

When the Naxalite movement came up in West Bengal, the ruling Congress government used such brute force, that they lost the State forever. Today it is out of power in the State for a whopping 40 years and look in no position of forming a government in the future.

Congress made a comeback in Punjab in 1980 but single-handedly created the Punjab problem.

Punjabi man-762211_960_720Why Indira Gandhi and her son Sanjay wanted to deal with a person like Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale we will never know. But they kept backing him and making him more and more powerful till he turned against them. The Centre launched a military operation against the Golden Temple more than once. The Khalistan problem became a raging one. Finally Indira herself was assassinated, leaving an inexperienced Rajiv, who squandered a majority Congress rule at the Centre for good.

Congress became pally with the LTTE and they assassinated Rajiv.

Bhindranwale wasn’t the only such person that the Congress dealt with. Another was LTTE supremo V Prabhakaran. The story is that during an Indo-Sri Lanka meet when the Lankan authorities heard that India was hosting Prabhakaran, they were livid.

There were reports of India giving financial aid to the LTTE and aid was dropped in their territories against the will of the Lankan government. The Indian government soon turned against Prabhakaran and he took his revenge by assassinating Rajiv.

Congress backed Bal Thackeray to counter Communists and he ended Congress majority rule for good in Maharashtra in 1995.

Mumbai victoria-station-390633_960_720When Shiv Sena’s Bal Thackeray emerged in the 1960s instead of countering him, the Congress secretly backed him in a bid to counter the Communists. In fact it was in the 1980s that Thackeray and Congressman Sharad Pawar joined hands to finish off the unions.

Thackeray had the last laugh though. A Shiv Sena Chief Minister was sworn in in 1995 and after that the Congress has not had a single majority government in Maharashtra, a State which it had really dominated till that year right from Independence. Subsequently we had the first BJP Chief Minister in 2014.

Congress still had the largest political network in 2014, but is totally decimating it for 2019.

The Congress always returned after being booted out at the Centre. 1980. 1991. 2004. These are three such momentous years. However 2014 seems to be a year with a difference. What many people don’t realize that though the Congress lost in 2014, it still had the most MLAs across the country and the largest organizational network and that with the greatest money and muscle power.

Instead of consolidating that and making a comeback, the party backed the disastrous mother-son Sonia-Pappu duo to the hilt, started decimating leaders at the regional level and attack Prime Minister Narendra Modi 24X7 instead of coming out with a coherent effective strategy to regain their paramount national status.

parliament-2028311_640The contrast between 2014 and 2018 was mentioned by me in an article
(1) In the Lok Sabha it has more than 5 times as many MPs as the Congress. (No competition)
(2) In the Rajya Sabha it leads 73-50 and if you add BJP allies, then it’s even further ahead.
(3) In the list of most populous states, the largest Congress has is Punjab at No. 20. Apart from that they have the smaller Mizoram and Union Territory Puducherry. In contrast there are 16 BJP Chief Ministers and more as allies. Scoring big in the Assemblies leads to scoring big in the Lok Sabha. Losing States means you’ll lose the Centre again.
(4) There are 1500+ BJP MLAs and the Congress has less than half of that.
(5) BJP is by far the richer party.
And finally an interesting point…
(6) In the 2014 elections, 10.7 crore people voted for the Congress. In the last four years, their support has drastically reduced. What about the BJP? Well their primary membership itself stands at 11 crore plus!

This is happening because Congress is losing most of its battles post-2014 in a bid to win the 2019 war. But only by winning many battles from 2014-19 can it win 2019!

Do you remember when was the last time before November 8, 2016 that…

Rupee 1811937_960_7201. The corrupt of the land burnt or shredded or dumped or distributed tens of thousands of crores of their black Rupees just like that?

2. The black money economy saw a real earthquake?

3. The Naxalite funding industry was severely hit?

4. The Kashmir terrorism industry was severely hit along with stone pelting?

5. The global counterfeiting industry was hit hard and had to begin from scratch vis a vis the Rupee?

6. Pakistan was suddenly squeezed financially by India (counterfeiting + terror funding)?

iphone-624709_960_7207. Mobile data/online payments/debit/credit cards/PoS devices/bank accounts/PayTM… etc (Phew!) all got a sudden simultaneous fillip.

8. The corrupt of the land were actually scared of a Prime Minister?

9. Political party funding went for a toss all across India?

10. Public utilities suddenly received back payments in cash including monthly and yearly backlogs.

currency-1843349_960_720And more importantly: All in one stroke?

Boss, neither do I!

#Demonetization

P.S. In large countries, India currently has the highest GDP growth rate in the world!

9 reasons why Modi is heading for a landslide in the 2019 general elections

zip-3351499_960_720In 2002, they said Narendra Modi would be sacked as Gujarat Chief Minister. Then they said he would lose the State elections that year. In 2007 they said he would lose the Gujarat elections yet again. In 2009 they predicted that his national career was finished.

In the run up to the 2014 general elections, first they said that the BJP would never make Modi as their Prime Ministerial candidate, then they said the allies would never accept him, after that they said that the people would never accept him, finally they said that the NDA would stand no chance of getting the half-way mark which was later revised to the BJP tally.

That’s a 100% failure record, so now if they are saying that Modi is facing a tough 2019 it actually means that he is heading for a landslide. Here are 8 reasons why…

1. Congress was the largest party whenever they made a comeback.

currency-1843349_960_720At the Centre, the Congress made a comeback in 1980, 1991 and 2004. So then why can’t it do it for the fourth time in 2019? The answer lies in the fact that at all those three times, the Congress was by far the largest party of the land.

In all those three occasions, Congress had the most manpower and most money. Congress has nearly always had the most MPs in the Rajya Sabha, most Chief Ministers and most MLAs. Historically they’ve just lost seats in the Lok Sabha but retained their power everywhere else. This is the first time it is not so. The BJP has emerged as the big daddy in Indian politics with no close second.

The BJP beats the Congress on all counts…
parliament-2028311_640(1) In the Lok Sabha it leads 271-48. (No competition)
(2) In the Rajya Sabha it leads 71-50 and if you add BJP allies, then it’s even further ahead.
(3) In the list of most populous states, the largest Congress has is Punjab at No. 20. Apart from that they have the smaller Mizoram and Union Territory Puducherry. In contrast there are 16 BJP Chief Ministers and more as allies. Scoring big in the Assemblies leads to scoring big in the Lok Sabha. Losing States means you’ll lose the Centre again.
(4) There are 1500+ BJP MLAs and the Congress has less than half of that.
(5) BJP is by far the richer party.
And finally an interesting point…
(6) In the 2014 elections, 10.7 crore people voted for the Congress. In the last four years, their support has drastically reduced. What about the BJP? Well their primary membership itself stands at 11 crore plus!

In the past Congress was an elephant that always returned due to its sheer size. Well now the Congress has shrunk to insignificance and the BJP is the elephant. It is a rising elephant in power to boot.

2. Modi has become the default operating system.

binary-65473_960_720Once, Pappu (Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi) said that the Congress was the default operating system of India. He was right. But only till 2014! As mentioned above, Modi has uninstalled the Congress and made the BJP the default operating system.

That didn’t happen in the previous occasions. In 1980, the Janata Party disintegrated. In 1998, the Janata Dal disintegrated. Even the BJP started weakening from 2002 onward thanks to Godhra (it didn’t dent Modi, but it depressed Vajpayee), Operation West End and the media’s relentless attacks on the BJP.

The President, Vice President and Governors are all BJP appointees for the first time and it is the Congress that is still reeling from scandals.

The Congress gave us Independence in 1947 and for decades people blindly voted due to that. However there’s hardly anyone left alive today who was old enough to see India getting that Independence. Today the mantra is development & governance and Modi & the BJP are more associated that.

3. Modi’s 2018 image is even better than his 2014 one.

Indira Gandhi’s 1975 Emergency sunk her and she called the elections in 1977 in an act of desperation and lost. The Janata Party fought itself to extinction by 1980. Rajiv Gandhi came as Mr Clean in 1984, but by 1989 he was disgraced thanks to Bofors, the HDW scam, the Shah Bano case, the anti-defamation bill etc.

The Janata Dal leaders fought themselves to oblivion by 1991. PV Narasmiha Rao started with a bang in 1991, but from 1992 afterwards, he saw one scandal after another: The stock market scam, the Babri Masjid demolition, the JMM bribery case, Lakhubhai Pathak, Hawala, St Kitts… it wasn’t really surprising that he lost. Nationally the Janata Dal itself disintegrated by 1998.

AB Vajpayee’s golden period was 1996-99 when he led the BJP to be the single largest party in three straight general elections (1996, 1998 & 1999), affected Pokhran thumbing his nose at America and winning the Kargil War. From 2001 he had Operation West End, Godhra and by 2004 was a pale shadow of himself and it was not surprising that he lost.

Even UPA’s 2009 victory was soured in 2010 itself with the unearthing of the Commonwealth Games scam after which we had August Kranti, 2G, Coalgate, Choppergate etc.

However well into 2018, it is the Congress of the back foot and its scams are still coming out with great regularity even though it lost power four years ago. Modi continues to be Mr Clean, Mr Governance and Mr Development. To recap, Rajiv, Rao, Vajpayee (1999) and UPA2 unraveled in the first couple of years whereas Modi is still going strong after four years and there’s hardly any time left to counter that.

4. Modi has a lot to show for his term.

train-1209291_960_720For the first time in Independent Indian history, India became a power surplus nation. LPG connections soared as the middle class subsidy was transferred to the poor. Bank accounts for the poor went up. GST unified India in the end. Demonetization mopped up tens of thousands of crores of black money and reduced counterfeiting.

When Latur faced severe water crisis, the Jaldoot Express (trains of water tankers) sorted out the problem. The Railways recently saw the lowest accident rate in 40 years. Road building has been speeded up. There is focus on real urgent pressing issues like building toilets.

Shastri reformed India but died early. Rao liberalized and transformed foreign policy but soon got bogged down by scams and inaction. In contrast, the Modi Express has been chugging along at full steam since 2014.

5. Pro-incumbency is the norm at the centre.

nehru-2361331_640Jawaharlal Nehru was not the popular choice for Prime Minister within his party and was foisted on the nation by Mahatma Gandhi. But still when he took over he won all the elections in his life. His daughter Indira also won all the elections save one where she had imposed the dreaded dictatorial Emergency.

The Janata Party and Janata Dal disintegrated and only the slew of scandals sunk Rajiv in 1989. Vajpayee in 2004 was not expected to complete his term had he been elected and he was scandal-ridden and overshadowed by LK Advani. Manmohan got re-elected in 2009 even though he was mediocre in UPA1.

At the Centre pro-incumbency is the norm and Modi is in his prime and young enough to complete two more terms so it is unlikely that India will vote against him in 2019.

6. The Opposition has made a total mess of itself.

Ram Manohar Lohia’s anti-Congressism unified the Opposition when they captured the States for the first time in 1967. Jayaprakash Narayan plotted Indira’s downfall and installed the Janata Party in 1977. VP Singh was the most popular leader in 1989 and he too united the Opposition.

Vajpayee was the tallest leader in the 1996, 1998 and 1999 elections and BJP was the single-largest leader in all three. (Manmohan) Singh was King in 2009. Similarly Modi is the emperor today and it is the the entire opposition that is disunited.

Pappu is a joke and no other regional leader is within a mile of Modi. Post-2014 law and order has been a disaster in non-BJP states like Akhilesh Yadav’s Uttar Pradesh, Lalu Yadav’s Bihar and Mamata Banerjee’s West Bengal.

In 2019, the Opposition is not in a position to challenge Modi.

7. BJP will make gains in the South, East and Northeast.

borders-2099205_640In 2014, the BJP stormed the North and West. There is no reason to believe that they will not improve their performance. But even if they do shed seats, they will gain them from the rest of the country. The BJP has already stormed the Northeast.

It is sure to pick up seats from the East (West Bengal & Orissa) and also from the South. It could open its account in Kerala and do better in states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. It may increase its share in Karnataka where the Congress and JDS are fighting each other to the death.

8. Modi Haters are following the same stale 2002 strategy.

Maut ka saudagar. (Merchant of death). Nazi. Hitler. Fascist. Dictator. Muslims under siege. Christians under siege. Rising intolerance. Dalits under siege. Danger to the press. #Awardwapsi…

Modi haters and his political rivals used that strategy in 2002. And lost. They used that strategy in 2007. And lost. They used that strategy in 2014. And lost. So why are they still using this losing strategy for 2019? To lose again?

9. He’s is still India’s greatest campaign manager… ever.

narendra-modi-2112081_640It can be argued that without Modi the BJP may have won only 200-220 seats in the 2014 general elections. Then they won state after state due to Modi’s massive rallies and cunning campaigns. In Gujarat State elections the BJP would have surely lost had it not been for Modi. Recently in Karnataka most polls showed Congress ahead but after a Modi blitzkrieg, the BJP emerged as the single largest party.

Modi is still in top form. He is still the number one campaigner. He still has Amit Shah, who’s the best poll strategist. Modi will still be tough to beat in 2019.

Get it 100% wrong, keep predicting, keep preaching and keep getting paid big bucks forever

narendra-modi-2112081_640In 2002, They (most media houses plus most pollsters plus most political experts plus most intellectuals plus most TV news stars plus most everybody else who had a voice and allegedly mattered) said that Modi would lose elections in the face of polarization and end his political career.
Not only did Modi win, but he is the biggest political figure well into 2018.

In 2004, They said that Vajpayee and the NDA would make a return and Advani would make Prime Minister and Sonia’s political career was over.
The NDA lost, Vajpayee’s career ended, Advani’s career virtually ended, Sonia virtually became a dictator for 10 years and now They are desperately trying to prop up a failed Sonia for 2019.

In 2009, They said that since Modi couldn’t win most of his State Lok Sabha seats, his national ambitions had officially ended.
Not only did Modi make a comeback, but he is the biggest national political figure well into 2018.

parliament-2028311_640In 2009, They said that UPA would probably just about scrape through and would be heavily reliant on all the allies for many many years to come. It was a new era of collation politics.
Congress jumped from 145 Lok Sabha seats to 206 and gave a royal kick to all their allies and virtually ruled alone for 5 years and the BJP government that followed also had no need for allies.

In the 2012 UP Assembly polls, They predicted a hopelessly hung Assembly.
Unsurprisingly the SP stormed to a clear majority.

For Modi and 2014, They made umpteen predictions…
Forget BJP, even NDA won’t get 272!
The BJP will never make Modi their PM candidate.
The allies will never accept Modi.
The common man will never accept Modi.
He can never let go the ghost of Godhra.
After 2014…
The Modi wave is over.
He will never be able to function in New Delhi.
The way all these predictions, assertions and prophecies got smashed to smithereens is not funny, it’s farcical.

kashmir-boat-642167_640In 2014, They couldn’t even sniff a BJP landslide in Haryana or an NDA government in J&K.

In 2015, They were nowhere near predicting 67/70 seats for AAP in Delhi.

They made absolute fools of themselves in Bihar in 2015 and predicted both a BJP landslide and a Mahagatbandhan landslide. One poll gave such a wide margin that it predicted a win for BJP, a loss for BJP and a hung house!

Now they are telling us that the Modi wave is over and he will be beaten in 2019 and I guess we have no choice but to believe them!

Bonus: International edition…

donald-trump-1708433_640Brexit can’t happen.
Right parties can’t come to power in Europe.
Trump isn’t serious.
Trump will withdraw from the Presidential race.
Trump can’t win the Republican nomination.
Trump can’t beat Hillary.
After becoming President, Trump will either be impeached or resign.
Trump will start a nuclear war with North Korea.

© Sunil Rajguru

The political death of Narendra Modi is greatly exaggerated…

fake-2355686_12802002.
Gujarat goes to polls amidst the cloud of Godhra.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2007.
Gujarat goes to the polls in the “absence of polarization”.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2009.
Gujarat: Congress wins 15 MPs in Gujarat, BJP 11.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2013.
Modi made campaign chief and decks cleared to become Prime Ministerial candidate.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2015.
BJP royally plastered in Bihar and Delhi.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2017.
BJP gets landslide in Himachal Pradesh but wins narrowly in Gujarat.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

india-get-166300_1280The reports of my political death are grossly exaggerated.
—Modi.
(Coming soon: How 2019 will end the Modi story)

© Sunil Rajguru

Modi’s electoral success set to surpass even Nehru and Indira

borders-2099205_1280Modi’s electoral performance in terms of size of electorate (population) where the BJP was in power or the opposition or at least had an outside chance to win…

1. Lok Sabha 2014 — Won.

2. Uttar Pradesh 2017 — Won.

3. Maharashtra 2014 — Won.

4. Bihar 2015 — Lost but converted to “Won” in 2017.

5. Madhya Pradesh 2013 — Won.

6. Rajasthan 2013 — Won.

7. Gujarat 2017 — Won.

8. Gujarat 2012 — Won.

9. Gujarat 2007 — Won.

10. Gujarat 2002 — Won.

11. Jharkhand 2014 — Won.

12. Assam 2016 — Won.

13. Chhattisgarh 2013 — Won.

14. Haryana 2014 — Won.

15. J&K 2014 — Won.

16. Uttarakhand 2017 — Won.

17. Himachal Pradesh 2017 — Won.

18. Manipur  2017 — Won by default.

19. Goa 2017 — Won by default.

20. The biggest defeat of his career and his absolute annihilation is Delhi. Kejriwal got a whopping 67/70 seats. But here’s the thing. Delhi is the 30th largest province of India by population and the Chief Minister there is a glorified mayor.

parliament-2028311_640Note: BJP has no presence in States like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala and is a junior partner in States like Andhra Pradesh and Punjab. But even that is changing.

Curious for a man who has won almost all his biggest challenges and lost some of his smaller ones is always on test for the mainstream media for his abilities and he will still be attacked in 2019.

© Sunil Rajguru

The spectacular international Rajyog of Narendra Damodardas Modi

bright-1866986_640There is a concept in India called Rajyog, a period in which a king will reign and flourish, while all his enemies will perish. Those who ally with him will prosper and those oppose him will bite the dust.

Narendra Modi saw a spectacular rise from 2012–14 during which he won almost every State Assembly election he campaigned for and he made Prime Minister of India by reducing a party which had ruled much of India to a record low and abysmal 44/543 seats (8%) in Parliament while he led his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to 282 seats in the May 2014 general elections.

All his regional rivals perished one by one but when he looked at the international stage, the same thing started happening there too. Probably his biggest regional rival when he took over was Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa. India first backed the dreaded LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) and then fought them with disastrous results, losing a war and then former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.

Rajapaksa beat the LTTE and then warmed up to China, much to the chagrin of India who looked on helplessly. When Modi took over, Rajapaksa was at his peak and looked good to win in 2015 and rule till 2020. And then in January 2015, out of the blue, Rajapaksa lost. Absolutely nobody saw that coming. Rajapaksa tried to be Prime Minister the same year, but lost that too. The new Sri Lanka leadership is much more amenable to working with Modi and is not openly baiting Modi the way Rajapaksa was.

israel-2131247_640India was a rare non-Muslim country which opposed the creation of Israel in the United Nations and did nothing to mend ties with that country till 1991. Till 2014 the ties between the two countries got better and better but they didn’t create much fuss.

Then it all came out of the closet after Modi took over and he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formed a mutual admiration society and started praising each other and promising everyone their ties would be taken to the next level.

A few months after Rajapaksa was defeated, Netanyahu went to the polls and the consensus was that he would be defeated. In a surprise verdict he wasn’t. Against all odds, he emerged triumphant and now he and Modi are seriously cementing ties between India and Israel.

A few months after Netanyahu’s victory, there were elections in the United Kingdom. David Miliband is a good friend of Modi’s rival and Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi. When David visited Rahul, the two spent the night in a Dalit’s hut in an Uttar Pradesh village. Rahul also posted photos of the two on social media when they met in Aspen.

Prime Minister David Cameron on the other hand seemed more aligned with Modi. #AbKiBaarModiSarkaar (This time a Modi government) was a catchy slogan of the 2014 polls. When Cameron met an Indian journalist, he said #AbKiBaarCameronSarkaar! In the UK elections Cameron was either supposed to lose or a hung Parliament was to favour Labour led by David’s brother Ed Miliband.

In a shocker, Cameron thrashed Miliband 330–232 as the former did well even in Labour bastions and the latter was forced to retire. Another friend of Modi had won a surprising victory. Another Modi catchy slogan was #AccheDin (Good days). When Cameron stood with Modi in Wembley Stadium, he declared, “Acche din zaroor aayenge” (Good days will definitely come)

Then Theresa May replaced Cameron and surprisingly she started moving Left and away from both the ideologies of Modi and US President Donald Trump and she is quite on shaky ground.

Talking of Trump and the US Presidential elections. Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton could be classified as a Modi hater. As Secretary of State, she ensured that US President Barack Obama was lukewarm to India.

hillary-41775_640Hillary has been a known Modi baiter and if she became US President, their ties would be quite rocky. While Trump has made a few digs about outsourcing, he has by and large been appreciative of the India story under Modi and praised him publicly on many occasions.

Modi and Trump have many things in common. Both are from the Right, have been attacked by the media, liberals and intellectuals. Both have a keen business sense and are straight talkers.

Read: Eerie similarities between reactions to Modi and Trump…

There is no doubt that Modi would have rather done business with Trump rather than Hillary. And guess what? Before the campaign began in 2015, most analysts said that Trump would not even make it to the Top 5 in the Republican race and Hillary would clinch her nomination in no time. Well Trump officially secured his nomination before Hillary and then thrashed her in the polls.

donald-trump-2005343_640Today Trump will be regularly found rubbishing Pakistan and praising Modi. Trump is growing more powerful by the day no matter what his haters are trying to tell you. Most world leaders have already warmed up to Modi. Even Trump’s predecessor Obama is a fan and actually installed a White House hotline with India. At a meet long ago he ran up to Modi, got hold of his hands and declared, “You’re the man!”

The two got together and revived the almost dead Indo-US nuclear deal. Modi surprised everyone by inviting Obama to be chief guest at India’s Republic Day parade in 2015. Obama surprised everyone by accepting the decision almost immediately.

While Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have had good ties for decades, no Pakistani head of State got the highest civilian honour, but it was bestowed on Modi. With that he joined an elite group of international leaders who had won that award. While America-Israel-Saudi Arabia is forming a troika in West Asia and isolating everyone there, India needn’t worry because it has excellent relations with all three.

Modi then got Afghanistan’s top civilian honour too. And to think he was dismissed as anti-Muslim once upon a time! Underworld Dawood Ibrahim operated with impunity in Karachi, but after Modi came to power, he may have been shifted to the border (if he’s not already dead) and his assets have been neutralized in Dubai because even UAE is warming up to Modi!

When Russian President Vladimir Putin was facing problems with Turkey, he asked Modi whether he could pick up Turkey’s business in case of a crisis. While a Russia-Turkey patch-up is underway, Putin still wants a special relationship with Modi.

abe-shinzo-867817_1280Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe follows very few people on Twitter. The third person he followed was Modi. It is difficult to believe that Modi was an unknown quantity on the world stage till 2014. After Abe signed a Bullet Train with Modi, he also got a surprise victory at the hustings. He has completed 5 years in office, a rarity for Japan premiership wracked by non-stop resignations.

In a Rajyog your friends do well and your rivals don’t. In the 2014 elections the previous Congress low was 114 seats in 1999 but with 44 in 2014 they couldn’t even officially claim the Leader of the Opposition status in the Lok Sabha. The next largest party was the ADMK and its leader Jayalalithaa died unfortunately but her successor Sasikala was convicted. A post-Sasikala ADMK has warmed up to Modi. After that comes the TMC and its leader Mamata Baneerjee too is under a cloud in the Saradha scam case and a total law and order break-down in West Bengal.

JDU’s Nitish Kumar split with the BJP and actually won the Bihar elections in 2015, but he was also forced to return to the BJP despite being a Modi hater once upon a time. The Shiv Sena allied with the BJP in Maharashtra but keeps attacking Modi and is getting weaker in the State. In fact in the recent statewide rural elections, BJP came first and the Congress distant second. Sena was behind the Congress!

india-712575_1920Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrabau Naidu warmed up to Modi and saw a surprise victory in 2014. New Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal may have beaten Modi in Delhi, but he stands totally neutralized at the national level. From 1947-2013, the Congress had the most MLAs in India save for a brief period in 1977-1980 when the Janata Party went ahead, but they weren’t really single party but a coalition.

Modi took over as campaign chief in 2013 and for the first time ever the BJP overtook the Congress in 2015. It didn’t stop there. Today the Congress has around 800 MLAs while the BJP is in the region of 1400. It’s a no contest and that’s one factor hardly highlighted by the media. In fact in the Top 15 Indian States by population, Congress rules only 1, unprecedented for the Grand Old Party. If they lose Karnataka in 2018, it may be Game Over for them.

narendra-modi-2112081_640Modi is supreme in India and has no rival. On the world stage he stands tall too.

It is only the Indian mainstream media, Civil Society  and so called intellectuals who is trying to create a fake narrative that he is on shaky ground and faces tests every day and they are coming out with fake campaigns like the one related to intolerance.

Meanwhile, the spectacular Rajyog of Modi marches on!

(This is an updated version of an article that first appeared in June 2016)

Spectacular rise & rise of Pappu

profits-1953616_19202003: Armed with qualifications from Harvard and Cambridge he is a total no-one in politics.

2004: Enters politics and immediately becomes Lok Sabha MP in his very first attempt.

2007: Triple whammy! Promoted to Congress General Secretary, Chairperson of Indian Youth Congress and National Students Union of India!

2009: His magic leads to a whopping 42% growth of the Congress in the Lok Sabha: Great future hope for the media, intellectuals and Civil Society of India.

2013: Promoted to Congress Vice President by his sheer hard work and daring.

2017: Promoted to Congress President unanimously with no other option even remotely in sight.

2019: Presumptive official Prime Ministerial candidate of the Congress for the general elections and will still be the Great Hope for the anti-Modi brigade.

2024: Doesn’t matter what happens in 2019, for many he will still be the knight in shining armour if he should still happen to be around in this year or 2029 or 2034 or…

© Sunil Rajguru

Yes, Narendra Modi will be thrashed in the 2019 general elections…

fist-1561157_6402002: The grand strategy of Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of Gujarat and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Modi wins Gujarat.

2007: The grand strategy of Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of Gujarat and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Modi wins Gujarat again.

2013: The grand strategy of Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of Gujarat and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Modi leads BJP to landslides in Assembly elections.

2014: The grand strategy of Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of Gujarat and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Modi gets greatest BJP mandate in the history of Independent India.

2014-17: The grand strategy of the Opposition, Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of India and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Modi wins most of the Assembly polls with a crushing victory in Uttar Pradesh being the icing on the cake.

2017-19: The grand strategy of the Opposition, Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of India and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Hmmm!!! Now I wonder what the result of 2019 could be?!?

© Sunil Rajguru

But they say India is not secular…

india-2131238_640India was ruled for 17 years by a Hindu who hated being a Hindu. (Nehru)

Ruled for 15 years by a Hindu married to a Parsi with Muslim heritage. (Indira)

Ruled for 5 years by a Hindu with Parsi-Muslim heritage. (Rajiv)

Ruled for 10 years by a Sikh controlled by a Christian. (Manmohan-Sonia)

India is the most secular country in the world and yet many are bent on maligning it.

© Sunil Rajguru