In 2002, most polls and experts said Modi would lose. He won.

In 2004, most polls and experts said the NDA would win. It lost.

In 2007, most polls and experts said Modi would lose. He won.

In 2009, most polls and experts said Congress wouldn’t cross 200. It did.

In 2012, most polls and experts said UP Assembly would be hung, but SP stormed to power.

In 2014, most polls and experts said BJP wouldn’t cross 272. It did.

In 2015 no poll predicted 67/70 for the AAP in Delhi.

In 2015 for Bihar, one poll showed an NDA landslide, another a Mahagatbandhan landslide, another a hung Assembly and one even gave a range that included both a Modi and Nitish win along with a hung House rendering all the polls a joke!

In 2015, most polls and experts said Brexit couldn’t happen. It did.

In 2016, most polls and experts said Trump would lose. He won.

Now that polls have been announced in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, get ready to have these same pollsters and experts give us major arrogant gyan again all the while making tonnes of money. They will move on seamlessly to their next prediction with zero accountability if they are proved totally wrong.

Sad fact of life: The more the pollsters and experts get it wrong, the more money they make.

(And even if they are right this time, it really doesn’t change their overall abysmal error rate for important elections.)

© Sunil Rajguru