9 reasons why Modi is heading for a landslide in the 2019 general elections

zip-3351499_960_720In 2002, they said Narendra Modi would be sacked as Gujarat Chief Minister. Then they said he would lose the State elections that year. In 2007 they said he would lose the Gujarat elections yet again. In 2009 they predicted that his national career was finished.

In the run up to the 2014 general elections, first they said that the BJP would never make Modi as their Prime Ministerial candidate, then they said the allies would never accept him, after that they said that the people would never accept him, finally they said that the NDA would stand no chance of getting the half-way mark which was later revised to the BJP tally.

That’s a 100% failure record, so now if they are saying that Modi is facing a tough 2019 it actually means that he is heading for a landslide. Here are 8 reasons why…

1. Congress was the largest party whenever they made a comeback.

currency-1843349_960_720At the Centre, the Congress made a comeback in 1980, 1991 and 2004. So then why can’t it do it for the fourth time in 2019? The answer lies in the fact that at all those three times, the Congress was by far the largest party of the land.

In all those three occasions, Congress had the most manpower and most money. Congress has nearly always had the most MPs in the Rajya Sabha, most Chief Ministers and most MLAs. Historically they’ve just lost seats in the Lok Sabha but retained their power everywhere else. This is the first time it is not so. The BJP has emerged as the big daddy in Indian politics with no close second.

The BJP beats the Congress on all counts…
parliament-2028311_640(1) In the Lok Sabha it leads 271-48. (No competition)
(2) In the Rajya Sabha it leads 71-50 and if you add BJP allies, then it’s even further ahead.
(3) In the list of most populous states, the largest Congress has is Punjab at No. 20. Apart from that they have the smaller Mizoram and Union Territory Puducherry. In contrast there are 16 BJP Chief Ministers and more as allies. Scoring big in the Assemblies leads to scoring big in the Lok Sabha. Losing States means you’ll lose the Centre again.
(4) There are 1500+ BJP MLAs and the Congress has less than half of that.
(5) BJP is by far the richer party.
And finally an interesting point…
(6) In the 2014 elections, 10.7 crore people voted for the Congress. In the last four years, their support has drastically reduced. What about the BJP? Well their primary membership itself stands at 11 crore plus!

In the past Congress was an elephant that always returned due to its sheer size. Well now the Congress has shrunk to insignificance and the BJP is the elephant. It is a rising elephant in power to boot.

2. Modi has become the default operating system.

binary-65473_960_720Once, Pappu (Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi) said that the Congress was the default operating system of India. He was right. But only till 2014! As mentioned above, Modi has uninstalled the Congress and made the BJP the default operating system.

That didn’t happen in the previous occasions. In 1980, the Janata Party disintegrated. In 1998, the Janata Dal disintegrated. Even the BJP started weakening from 2002 onward thanks to Godhra (it didn’t dent Modi, but it depressed Vajpayee), Operation West End and the media’s relentless attacks on the BJP.

The President, Vice President and Governors are all BJP appointees for the first time and it is the Congress that is still reeling from scandals.

The Congress gave us Independence in 1947 and for decades people blindly voted due to that. However there’s hardly anyone left alive today who was old enough to see India getting that Independence. Today the mantra is development & governance and Modi & the BJP are more associated that.

3. Modi’s 2018 image is even better than his 2014 one.

Indira Gandhi’s 1975 Emergency sunk her and she called the elections in 1977 in an act of desperation and lost. The Janata Party fought itself to extinction by 1980. Rajiv Gandhi came as Mr Clean in 1984, but by 1989 he was disgraced thanks to Bofors, the HDW scam, the Shah Bano case, the anti-defamation bill etc.

The Janata Dal leaders fought themselves to oblivion by 1991. PV Narasmiha Rao started with a bang in 1991, but from 1992 afterwards, he saw one scandal after another: The stock market scam, the Babri Masjid demolition, the JMM bribery case, Lakhubhai Pathak, Hawala, St Kitts… it wasn’t really surprising that he lost. Nationally the Janata Dal itself disintegrated by 1998.

AB Vajpayee’s golden period was 1996-99 when he led the BJP to be the single largest party in three straight general elections (1996, 1998 & 1999), affected Pokhran thumbing his nose at America and winning the Kargil War. From 2001 he had Operation West End, Godhra and by 2004 was a pale shadow of himself and it was not surprising that he lost.

Even UPA’s 2009 victory was soured in 2010 itself with the unearthing of the Commonwealth Games scam after which we had August Kranti, 2G, Coalgate, Choppergate etc.

However well into 2018, it is the Congress of the back foot and its scams are still coming out with great regularity even though it lost power four years ago. Modi continues to be Mr Clean, Mr Governance and Mr Development. To recap, Rajiv, Rao, Vajpayee (1999) and UPA2 unraveled in the first couple of years whereas Modi is still going strong after four years and there’s hardly any time left to counter that.

4. Modi has a lot to show for his term.

train-1209291_960_720For the first time in Independent Indian history, India became a power surplus nation. LPG connections soared as the middle class subsidy was transferred to the poor. Bank accounts for the poor went up. GST unified India in the end. Demonetization mopped up tens of thousands of crores of black money and reduced counterfeiting.

When Latur faced severe water crisis, the Jaldoot Express (trains of water tankers) sorted out the problem. The Railways recently saw the lowest accident rate in 40 years. Road building has been speeded up. There is focus on real urgent pressing issues like building toilets.

Shastri reformed India but died early. Rao liberalized and transformed foreign policy but soon got bogged down by scams and inaction. In contrast, the Modi Express has been chugging along at full steam since 2014.

5. Pro-incumbency is the norm at the centre.

nehru-2361331_640Jawaharlal Nehru was not the popular choice for Prime Minister within his party and was foisted on the nation by Mahatma Gandhi. But still when he took over he won all the elections in his life. His daughter Indira also won all the elections save one where she had imposed the dreaded dictatorial Emergency.

The Janata Party and Janata Dal disintegrated and only the slew of scandals sunk Rajiv in 1989. Vajpayee in 2004 was not expected to complete his term had he been elected and he was scandal-ridden and overshadowed by LK Advani. Manmohan got re-elected in 2009 even though he was mediocre in UPA1.

At the Centre pro-incumbency is the norm and Modi is in his prime and young enough to complete two more terms so it is unlikely that India will vote against him in 2019.

6. The Opposition has made a total mess of itself.

Ram Manohar Lohia’s anti-Congressism unified the Opposition when they captured the States for the first time in 1967. Jayaprakash Narayan plotted Indira’s downfall and installed the Janata Party in 1977. VP Singh was the most popular leader in 1989 and he too united the Opposition.

Vajpayee was the tallest leader in the 1996, 1998 and 1999 elections and BJP was the single-largest leader in all three. (Manmohan) Singh was King in 2009. Similarly Modi is the emperor today and it is the the entire opposition that is disunited.

Pappu is a joke and no other regional leader is within a mile of Modi. Post-2014 law and order has been a disaster in non-BJP states like Akhilesh Yadav’s Uttar Pradesh, Lalu Yadav’s Bihar and Mamata Banerjee’s West Bengal.

In 2019, the Opposition is not in a position to challenge Modi.

7. BJP will make gains in the South, East and Northeast.

borders-2099205_640In 2014, the BJP stormed the North and West. There is no reason to believe that they will not improve their performance. But even if they do shed seats, they will gain them from the rest of the country. The BJP has already stormed the Northeast.

It is sure to pick up seats from the East (West Bengal & Orissa) and also from the South. It could open its account in Kerala and do better in states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. It may increase its share in Karnataka where the Congress and JDS are fighting each other to the death.

8. Modi Haters are following the same stale 2002 strategy.

Maut ka saudagar. (Merchant of death). Nazi. Hitler. Fascist. Dictator. Muslims under siege. Christians under siege. Rising intolerance. Dalits under siege. Danger to the press. #Awardwapsi…

Modi haters and his political rivals used that strategy in 2002. And lost. They used that strategy in 2007. And lost. They used that strategy in 2014. And lost. So why are they still using this losing strategy for 2019? To lose again?

9. He’s is still India’s greatest campaign manager… ever.

narendra-modi-2112081_640It can be argued that without Modi the BJP may have won only 200-220 seats in the 2014 general elections. Then they won state after state due to Modi’s massive rallies and cunning campaigns. In Gujarat State elections the BJP would have surely lost had it not been for Modi. Recently in Karnataka most polls showed Congress ahead but after a Modi blitzkrieg, the BJP emerged as the single largest party.

Modi is still in top form. He is still the number one campaigner. He still has Amit Shah, who’s the best poll strategist. Modi will still be tough to beat in 2019.

The political death of Narendra Modi is greatly exaggerated…

fake-2355686_12802002.
Gujarat goes to polls amidst the cloud of Godhra.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2007.
Gujarat goes to the polls in the “absence of polarization”.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2009.
Gujarat: Congress wins 15 MPs in Gujarat, BJP 11.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2013.
Modi made campaign chief and decks cleared to become Prime Ministerial candidate.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2015.
BJP royally plastered in Bihar and Delhi.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2017.
BJP gets landslide in Himachal Pradesh but wins narrowly in Gujarat.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

india-get-166300_1280The reports of my political death are grossly exaggerated.
—Modi.
(Coming soon: How 2019 will end the Modi story)

© Sunil Rajguru

Modi’s electoral success set to surpass even Nehru and Indira

borders-2099205_1280Modi’s electoral performance in terms of size of electorate (population) where the BJP was in power or the opposition or at least had an outside chance to win…

1. Lok Sabha 2014 — Won.

2. Uttar Pradesh 2017 — Won.

3. Maharashtra 2014 — Won.

4. Bihar 2015 — Lost but converted to “Won” in 2017.

5. Madhya Pradesh 2013 — Won.

6. Rajasthan 2013 — Won.

7. Gujarat 2017 — Won.

8. Gujarat 2012 — Won.

9. Gujarat 2007 — Won.

10. Gujarat 2002 — Won.

11. Jharkhand 2014 — Won.

12. Assam 2016 — Won.

13. Chhattisgarh 2013 — Won.

14. Haryana 2014 — Won.

15. J&K 2014 — Won.

16. Uttarakhand 2017 — Won.

17. Himachal Pradesh 2017 — Won.

18. Manipur  2017 — Won by default.

19. Goa 2017 — Won by default.

20. The biggest defeat of his career and his absolute annihilation is Delhi. Kejriwal got a whopping 67/70 seats. But here’s the thing. Delhi is the 30th largest province of India by population and the Chief Minister there is a glorified mayor.

parliament-2028311_640Note: BJP has no presence in States like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala and is a junior partner in States like Andhra Pradesh and Punjab. But even that is changing.

Curious for a man who has won almost all his biggest challenges and lost some of his smaller ones is always on test for the mainstream media for his abilities and he will still be attacked in 2019.

© Sunil Rajguru

Yes, Narendra Modi will be thrashed in the 2019 general elections…

fist-1561157_6402002: The grand strategy of Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of Gujarat and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Modi wins Gujarat.

2007: The grand strategy of Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of Gujarat and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Modi wins Gujarat again.

2013: The grand strategy of Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of Gujarat and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Modi leads BJP to landslides in Assembly elections.

2014: The grand strategy of Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of Gujarat and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Modi gets greatest BJP mandate in the history of Independent India.

2014-17: The grand strategy of the Opposition, Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of India and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Modi wins most of the Assembly polls with a crushing victory in Uttar Pradesh being the icing on the cake.

2017-19: The grand strategy of the Opposition, Civil Society, liberals, intellectuals and Leftist media…
Hey! Let’s totally demonize Modi, attack him 24X7, plant fake stories round the clock, blame him for ALL the ills of India and abuse all his supporters!
Result: Hmmm!!! Now I wonder what the result of 2019 could be?!?

© Sunil Rajguru

And they can’t stop the Modi juggernaut…

Red is dead.
Saffron is on.

Before 2014, nationwide Congress always had more MLAs than BJP.
Now Congress has close to 800 and BJP 1400 odd.

100 days before a poll: Modi haarega haarega!
50 days: haarega!
10 days: haarega!
1 day: haarega!
D-Day: Arre jeet gaya! Chalo next time…

Big 3 of World Tennis.
Fed. Rafa. Djoko.
Big 3 of Indian politics.
Nehru. Indira. Modi.

Bihar had the Mahagatbandhan.
Retrospectively the UP Pappu + Akhilesh alliance can be called the Mahagadbad.

Anna is threatening another agitation, against Modi.
Means he’s opening another political training course for Kejri ka sequel.

2011. All politicians are corrupt—Kejri.
2017. Kejri is corrupt—All politicians.

Does anyone remember that 6 years back the nation came to a standstill, an old man fasted, a new party was born over Lokpal?
Where’s the Lokpal?

These versions by Sunil Rajguru

The Modi tsunami continues with #2017Elections…

wave-1913559_640When Modi took over as campaign chief in 2013, Congress had more LS MPs, RS MPs, MLAs along with a Congress President and Vice President.
This year it will be all BJP.

Top 4 States by area—Rajasthan, MP, Maharashtra, UP.
All 4 BJP.
If BJP wins Karnataka in 2018—9/10 biggest States will be NDA.
Exception—Odisha.

1989-2009: Most polls were hung.
2012-2017: Most polls are very decisive.
How does the entire electorate of India change its mind at once?

Huge winner: BJP.
Runner-up: Congress.
Huge losers: BSP, SP, AAP

After the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Pappu will be inducted into the BJP, revealing that he was a secret agent all along, merely carrying out Mahatma Gandhi’s 1947 request of disbanding the Congress which was not needed as we had achieved freedom.

Narendra Modi has been #Remonetized.
Get ready for the next #SurgicalStrike.

These versions by Sunil Rajguru

Modi se panga mat lena warna…

Foresight of media analysts.
2016—#Demonetization.
Immediate analysis: He will be routed in 2019 thanks to this.
Reality—Landslide in 2017.

Aisa kabhi suna hai ki kamal ne haathi ko kuchla???
25 times more seats!

Whoever wants to be PM in Modi Raj is destroyed.
Maya is next to zero.
Mulayam is powerless.
Nitish has Lalu.
Mamata can’t even manage WB.

The steady fall of Maya…
2014: 0% Lok Sabha seats.
2017: 4.7% UP Assembly seats.
2018: 0% Rajya Sabha seats.

Baap nambari failure,
to beta das nambari failure.
#Mulayam #Akhilesh

So many parties on self-destruct mode.
SP.
BSP.
AAP.
BJD.
TMC.
JDU.
ADMK.
CPM.
NCP.
Shiv Sena.
Congress.

Mummy, I am ahead in 3 states and Modi uncle just 2!
#Pappu #ElectionResults

Congress ka Pappu + SP ka Pappu…
So besaahare ne ek doosre ko khadde main daal diya.

Non-Nehru/Indira/Sympathy Wave Lok Sabha seats.
MMS: 206.
Rajiv: 197.
Sonia: 145.
Pappu: 44.
Pappini if given the chance: 20, maybe.

News.
Pappu says: Jab Obamaji ki patni Amreeka main apni rasoi me kucch pakaaye…
Analysis.
Pappu is such a sexist that he wants even an ex-Prez’s wife to just cook in the kitchen.

These versions by Sunil Rajguru

My Complete Narendra Modi Columns

Modi haters must reconcile with the fact that Modi is here to stay
March 11, 2017, DailyO.in

I expect Modi to take bolder, hardline, controversial decisions in 2017
DailyO.in, December 5, 2016

Modi haters are only making it worse for India
June 22, 2016, DailyO.in

Has Swamy replaced Jaitley as Modi’s new mukhauta?
May 13, 2016, Sify.com

Modi doesn’t want India to see another Kalam for president
March 31, 2016, DailyO.in

Modi Haters Will Outrage And Fume Till 2019 No Matter What
February 2, 2016, IndiaFacts.co.in

How Modi made Pakistan irrelevant in India’s foreign policy
December 26, 2015, DailyO.in

8 reasons Modi will do absolutely nothing about Ram Mandir
November 30, 2015, DailyO.in

And you Thought Modi Was Doing Nothing?
November 30, 2015, IndiaFacts.co.in

5 reasons why Modi doesn’t give regular interviews or press conferences
November 26, 2015, MyVoice.OpIndia.com

Acchhe Din Are Already Here
November 26, 2015, IndiaFacts.co.in

25 controversies of Narendra Modi
November 16, 2015, Sify.com

Narendra Modi: The Man Who Bounces Back
November 9, 2015, IndiaFacts.co.in

8 #BlowToModi moments in 2015
November 9, 2015, Sify.com

Something Went Wrong with You? Just blame Modi
November 3, 2015, IndiaFacts.co.in

Don’t blame Modi for Godhra if you are ready to spare Gandhis
October 28, 2015, DailyO.in

Right to malign Modi a fundamental MSM right
April 13, 2015, Sify.com

Rise of the outsiders in Indian politics
January 21, 2015, Sify.com

My Narendra Modi Columns till 2014

The rise and rise of the BJP…

Congress won Karnataka in May 2013.
Then Modi was put in charge of the BJP.
After that the Congress has won hardly anything major on their own.
#CongMuktBharat

The growing BJP regional story.
Ya power ya opposition.
No more third place consolation prize.

So many parties on self-destruct mode.
Congress.
TMC.
JDU.
ADMK.
CPM.

These versions by Sunil Rajguru

J&K-Jharkhand poll musings…

Jharkhand-Jammu jhaaki hai,
Bihar-Bengal baaki hai,

The process of Ghar Wapsi of all Congress governments started in 2013.
‪#‎Rajasthan‬ ‪#‎NewDelhi‬ ‪#‎India‬ ‪#‎AndhraPradesh‬ ‪#‎Maharashtra‬ ‪#‎Haryana‬

Panellist: The party has not performed as per the exit poll.
—Duh! It’s your exit poll that has not performed!

One thing is clear that from now on for all State elections …
Tough fight between BJP versus Regional Party.
Congress heading for extinction.

Narendra Modi is building an electoral Development Highway throughout India.

These versions by Sunil Rajguru

At the polls: Jai Pappu. Hai hai Modi…

Pappu star campaigner for Bihar 2010 polls, Congress gets 4/243 seats.
Koi baat nahin Pappu, next time!

Pappu star campaigner for UP 2012 polls, Congress gets 28/403 seats.
Koi baat nahin Pappu, next time!

Pappu star campaigner for 2013 Assembly polls, Congress wins 1/5 States.
Koi baat nahin Pappu, next time!

Pappu star campaigner for 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Congress wins 44/543 seats.
Koi baat nahin Pappu, next time!

Pappu campaigns in Maharashtra and Haryana, Congress loses both States.
Koi baat nahin Pappu, next time! (Till 2024? Till 2029?)

Modi wins 2002 Gujarat Assembly polls.
Polarization!

Modi wins 2007 Gujarat Assembly polls.
Gujaratis have been fooled!

Modi wins 2012 Gujarat Assembly polls.
So what? Expected. TINA!

Modi campaigns to great 2013 Assembly polls victory.
No Modi wave. Even if so, it won’t last till 2014.

Modi leads BJP to spectacular 282 Lok Sabha seats.
31%! Bypolls show Modi wave has ended!

Modi campaign leads to BJP CMs in Maharashtra and Haryana.
Bah! He will never get Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.

Post script…
Pappu’s mistakes will be tolerated for decades.
Modi’s successes will be forgotten in one second.

© Sunil Rajguru

Modi: Fighting elections like a boss…

2002: After Godhra, you can’t win elections.
Modi: Challenge accepted!

2007: You can’t win sans polarization.
Modi: Challenge accepted!

2012: You may win, but you can’t become national leader.
Modi: Challenge accepted!

2013: Your magic will not work outside Gujarat.
Modi: Challenge accepted!

2014: BJP will never get a Lok Sabha majority.
Modi: Challenge accepted!

2014: Maharashtra and Haryana can never have BJP CMs.
Modi: Challenge accepted!

So what’s the next challenge they are throwing at Modi?

© Sunil Rajguru