In India you have to be single to rule…

modi-7753158_1280Jawaharlal Nehru was Prime Minister from 1947-64. He was a widower. Kamala Nehru died in 1936.

Indira Gandhi was PM from 1966-77 and 1980-84. She was a widow. Feroze Gandhi died in 1960.

PV Narasimha Rao was PM from 1991-96. He was a widower. His wife Satyamma died in 1970.

AB Vajpayee* was PM from 1996-96 and 1998-2004. He was a bachelor.

Sonia was Super PM from 2004-14. She is a widow. Rajiv Gandhi died in 1991.

Narendra Modi is a bachelor/single, depending on how you look at it because he was a victim of an illegal child marriage which did not go forward.

That covers about 65/77 years of India’s Independence.

*The run up to 2004 was interesting because Vajpayee was PM, bachelor APJ Abdul Kalam was President and Sonia was Leader of the Opposition.

9 reasons why Modi is heading for a landslide in the 2019 general elections

zip-3351499_960_720In 2002, they said Narendra Modi would be sacked as Gujarat Chief Minister. Then they said he would lose the State elections that year. In 2007 they said he would lose the Gujarat elections yet again. In 2009 they predicted that his national career was finished.

In the run up to the 2014 general elections, first they said that the BJP would never make Modi as their Prime Ministerial candidate, then they said the allies would never accept him, after that they said that the people would never accept him, finally they said that the NDA would stand no chance of getting the half-way mark which was later revised to the BJP tally.

That’s a 100% failure record, so now if they are saying that Modi is facing a tough 2019 it actually means that he is heading for a landslide. Here are 8 reasons why…

1. Congress was the largest party whenever they made a comeback.

currency-1843349_960_720At the Centre, the Congress made a comeback in 1980, 1991 and 2004. So then why can’t it do it for the fourth time in 2019? The answer lies in the fact that at all those three times, the Congress was by far the largest party of the land.

In all those three occasions, Congress had the most manpower and most money. Congress has nearly always had the most MPs in the Rajya Sabha, most Chief Ministers and most MLAs. Historically they’ve just lost seats in the Lok Sabha but retained their power everywhere else. This is the first time it is not so. The BJP has emerged as the big daddy in Indian politics with no close second.

The BJP beats the Congress on all counts…
parliament-2028311_640(1) In the Lok Sabha it leads 271-48. (No competition)
(2) In the Rajya Sabha it leads 71-50 and if you add BJP allies, then it’s even further ahead.
(3) In the list of most populous states, the largest Congress has is Punjab at No. 20. Apart from that they have the smaller Mizoram and Union Territory Puducherry. In contrast there are 16 BJP Chief Ministers and more as allies. Scoring big in the Assemblies leads to scoring big in the Lok Sabha. Losing States means you’ll lose the Centre again.
(4) There are 1500+ BJP MLAs and the Congress has less than half of that.
(5) BJP is by far the richer party.
And finally an interesting point…
(6) In the 2014 elections, 10.7 crore people voted for the Congress. In the last four years, their support has drastically reduced. What about the BJP? Well their primary membership itself stands at 11 crore plus!

In the past Congress was an elephant that always returned due to its sheer size. Well now the Congress has shrunk to insignificance and the BJP is the elephant. It is a rising elephant in power to boot.

2. Modi has become the default operating system.

binary-65473_960_720Once, Pappu (Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi) said that the Congress was the default operating system of India. He was right. But only till 2014! As mentioned above, Modi has uninstalled the Congress and made the BJP the default operating system.

That didn’t happen in the previous occasions. In 1980, the Janata Party disintegrated. In 1998, the Janata Dal disintegrated. Even the BJP started weakening from 2002 onward thanks to Godhra (it didn’t dent Modi, but it depressed Vajpayee), Operation West End and the media’s relentless attacks on the BJP.

The President, Vice President and Governors are all BJP appointees for the first time and it is the Congress that is still reeling from scandals.

The Congress gave us Independence in 1947 and for decades people blindly voted due to that. However there’s hardly anyone left alive today who was old enough to see India getting that Independence. Today the mantra is development & governance and Modi & the BJP are more associated that.

3. Modi’s 2018 image is even better than his 2014 one.

Indira Gandhi’s 1975 Emergency sunk her and she called the elections in 1977 in an act of desperation and lost. The Janata Party fought itself to extinction by 1980. Rajiv Gandhi came as Mr Clean in 1984, but by 1989 he was disgraced thanks to Bofors, the HDW scam, the Shah Bano case, the anti-defamation bill etc.

The Janata Dal leaders fought themselves to oblivion by 1991. PV Narasmiha Rao started with a bang in 1991, but from 1992 afterwards, he saw one scandal after another: The stock market scam, the Babri Masjid demolition, the JMM bribery case, Lakhubhai Pathak, Hawala, St Kitts… it wasn’t really surprising that he lost. Nationally the Janata Dal itself disintegrated by 1998.

AB Vajpayee’s golden period was 1996-99 when he led the BJP to be the single largest party in three straight general elections (1996, 1998 & 1999), affected Pokhran thumbing his nose at America and winning the Kargil War. From 2001 he had Operation West End, Godhra and by 2004 was a pale shadow of himself and it was not surprising that he lost.

Even UPA’s 2009 victory was soured in 2010 itself with the unearthing of the Commonwealth Games scam after which we had August Kranti, 2G, Coalgate, Choppergate etc.

However well into 2018, it is the Congress of the back foot and its scams are still coming out with great regularity even though it lost power four years ago. Modi continues to be Mr Clean, Mr Governance and Mr Development. To recap, Rajiv, Rao, Vajpayee (1999) and UPA2 unraveled in the first couple of years whereas Modi is still going strong after four years and there’s hardly any time left to counter that.

4. Modi has a lot to show for his term.

train-1209291_960_720For the first time in Independent Indian history, India became a power surplus nation. LPG connections soared as the middle class subsidy was transferred to the poor. Bank accounts for the poor went up. GST unified India in the end. Demonetization mopped up tens of thousands of crores of black money and reduced counterfeiting.

When Latur faced severe water crisis, the Jaldoot Express (trains of water tankers) sorted out the problem. The Railways recently saw the lowest accident rate in 40 years. Road building has been speeded up. There is focus on real urgent pressing issues like building toilets.

Shastri reformed India but died early. Rao liberalized and transformed foreign policy but soon got bogged down by scams and inaction. In contrast, the Modi Express has been chugging along at full steam since 2014.

5. Pro-incumbency is the norm at the centre.

nehru-2361331_640Jawaharlal Nehru was not the popular choice for Prime Minister within his party and was foisted on the nation by Mahatma Gandhi. But still when he took over he won all the elections in his life. His daughter Indira also won all the elections save one where she had imposed the dreaded dictatorial Emergency.

The Janata Party and Janata Dal disintegrated and only the slew of scandals sunk Rajiv in 1989. Vajpayee in 2004 was not expected to complete his term had he been elected and he was scandal-ridden and overshadowed by LK Advani. Manmohan got re-elected in 2009 even though he was mediocre in UPA1.

At the Centre pro-incumbency is the norm and Modi is in his prime and young enough to complete two more terms so it is unlikely that India will vote against him in 2019.

6. The Opposition has made a total mess of itself.

Ram Manohar Lohia’s anti-Congressism unified the Opposition when they captured the States for the first time in 1967. Jayaprakash Narayan plotted Indira’s downfall and installed the Janata Party in 1977. VP Singh was the most popular leader in 1989 and he too united the Opposition.

Vajpayee was the tallest leader in the 1996, 1998 and 1999 elections and BJP was the single-largest leader in all three. (Manmohan) Singh was King in 2009. Similarly Modi is the emperor today and it is the the entire opposition that is disunited.

Pappu is a joke and no other regional leader is within a mile of Modi. Post-2014 law and order has been a disaster in non-BJP states like Akhilesh Yadav’s Uttar Pradesh, Lalu Yadav’s Bihar and Mamata Banerjee’s West Bengal.

In 2019, the Opposition is not in a position to challenge Modi.

7. BJP will make gains in the South, East and Northeast.

borders-2099205_640In 2014, the BJP stormed the North and West. There is no reason to believe that they will not improve their performance. But even if they do shed seats, they will gain them from the rest of the country. The BJP has already stormed the Northeast.

It is sure to pick up seats from the East (West Bengal & Orissa) and also from the South. It could open its account in Kerala and do better in states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. It may increase its share in Karnataka where the Congress and JDS are fighting each other to the death.

8. Modi Haters are following the same stale 2002 strategy.

Maut ka saudagar. (Merchant of death). Nazi. Hitler. Fascist. Dictator. Muslims under siege. Christians under siege. Rising intolerance. Dalits under siege. Danger to the press. #Awardwapsi…

Modi haters and his political rivals used that strategy in 2002. And lost. They used that strategy in 2007. And lost. They used that strategy in 2014. And lost. So why are they still using this losing strategy for 2019? To lose again?

9. He’s is still India’s greatest campaign manager… ever.

narendra-modi-2112081_640It can be argued that without Modi the BJP may have won only 200-220 seats in the 2014 general elections. Then they won state after state due to Modi’s massive rallies and cunning campaigns. In Gujarat State elections the BJP would have surely lost had it not been for Modi. Recently in Karnataka most polls showed Congress ahead but after a Modi blitzkrieg, the BJP emerged as the single largest party.

Modi is still in top form. He is still the number one campaigner. He still has Amit Shah, who’s the best poll strategist. Modi will still be tough to beat in 2019.

Get it 100% wrong, keep predicting, keep preaching and keep getting paid big bucks forever

narendra-modi-2112081_640In 2002, They (most media houses plus most pollsters plus most political experts plus most intellectuals plus most TV news stars plus most everybody else who had a voice and allegedly mattered) said that Modi would lose elections in the face of polarization and end his political career.
Not only did Modi win, but he is the biggest political figure well into 2018.

In 2004, They said that Vajpayee and the NDA would make a return and Advani would make Prime Minister and Sonia’s political career was over.
The NDA lost, Vajpayee’s career ended, Advani’s career virtually ended, Sonia virtually became a dictator for 10 years and now They are desperately trying to prop up a failed Sonia for 2019.

In 2007, They said Modi would lose as there was no 2002-like polarization.
(The theory was retro-fitted. First it explained why he would lose. Then it was attributed to his win!).
Modi won handsomely and cemented his place in Gujarat and firmly launched his career as a national leader.

In 2009, They said that since Modi couldn’t win most of his State Lok Sabha seats, his national ambitions had officially ended.
Not only did Modi make a comeback, but he is the biggest national political figure well into 2018.

parliament-2028311_640In 2009, They said that UPA would probably just about scrape through and would be heavily reliant on all the allies for many many years to come. It was a new era of collation politics.
Congress jumped from 145 Lok Sabha seats to 206 and gave a royal kick to all their allies and virtually ruled alone for 5 years and the BJP government that followed also had no need for allies.

In the 2012 UP Assembly polls, They predicted a hopelessly hung Assembly.
Unsurprisingly the SP stormed to a clear majority.

For Modi and 2014, They made umpteen predictions…
Forget BJP, even NDA won’t get 272!
The BJP will never make Modi their PM candidate.
The allies will never accept Modi.
The common man will never accept Modi.
He can never let go the ghost of Godhra.
After 2014…
The Modi wave is over.
He will never be able to function in New Delhi.
The way all these predictions, assertions and prophecies got smashed to smithereens is not funny, it’s farcical.

kashmir-boat-642167_640In 2014, They couldn’t even sniff a BJP landslide in Haryana or an NDA government in J&K.

In 2015, They were nowhere near predicting 67/70 seats for AAP in Delhi.

They made absolute fools of themselves in Bihar in 2015 and predicted both a BJP landslide and a Mahagatbandhan landslide. One poll gave such a wide margin that it predicted a win for BJP, a loss for BJP and a hung house!

Now they are telling us that the Modi wave is over and he will be beaten in 2019 and I guess we have no choice but to believe them!

Bonus: International edition…

donald-trump-1708433_640Brexit can’t happen.
Right parties can’t come to power in Europe.
Trump isn’t serious.
Trump will withdraw from the Presidential race.
Trump can’t win the Republican nomination.
Trump can’t beat Hillary.
After becoming President, Trump will either be impeached or resign.
Trump will start a nuclear war with North Korea.

© Sunil Rajguru

The political death of Narendra Modi is greatly exaggerated…

fake-2355686_12802002.
Gujarat goes to polls amidst the cloud of Godhra.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2007.
Gujarat goes to the polls in the “absence of polarization”.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2009.
Gujarat: Congress wins 15 MPs in Gujarat, BJP 11.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2013.
Modi made campaign chief and decks cleared to become Prime Ministerial candidate.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2015.
BJP royally plastered in Bihar and Delhi.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

2017.
BJP gets landslide in Himachal Pradesh but wins narrowly in Gujarat.
Forecast: Modi is finished!

india-get-166300_1280The reports of my political death are grossly exaggerated.
—Modi.
(Coming soon: How 2019 will end the Modi story)

© Sunil Rajguru

Modi’s electoral success set to surpass even Nehru and Indira

borders-2099205_1280Modi’s electoral performance in terms of size of electorate (population) where the BJP was in power or the opposition or at least had an outside chance to win…

1. Lok Sabha 2014 — Won.

2. Uttar Pradesh 2017 — Won.

3. Maharashtra 2014 — Won.

4. Bihar 2015 — Lost but converted to “Won” in 2017.

5. Madhya Pradesh 2013 — Won.

6. Rajasthan 2013 — Won.

7. Gujarat 2017 — Won.

8. Gujarat 2012 — Won.

9. Gujarat 2007 — Won.

10. Gujarat 2002 — Won.

11. Jharkhand 2014 — Won.

12. Assam 2016 — Won.

13. Chhattisgarh 2013 — Won.

14. Haryana 2014 — Won.

15. J&K 2014 — Won.

16. Uttarakhand 2017 — Won.

17. Himachal Pradesh 2017 — Won.

18. Manipur  2017 — Won by default.

19. Goa 2017 — Won by default.

20. The biggest defeat of his career and his absolute annihilation is Delhi. Kejriwal got a whopping 67/70 seats. But here’s the thing. Delhi is the 30th largest province of India by population and the Chief Minister there is a glorified mayor.

parliament-2028311_640Note: BJP has no presence in States like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala and is a junior partner in States like Andhra Pradesh and Punjab. But even that is changing.

Curious for a man who has won almost all his biggest challenges and lost some of his smaller ones is always on test for the mainstream media for his abilities and he will still be attacked in 2019.

© Sunil Rajguru

5 reasons why Narendra Modi + entrepreneurship = Kamaal ki Jodi!

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is one of the most business-friendly Prime Ministers of Independent India. He has been very gung-ho about entrepreneurs right from his days as Gujarat Chief Minister.

Here are some of the reasons why Modi has ensured that entrepreneurship has grown in India and he will continue to do so…

boats-2332017_640The Gujjubhai business brain: There is an apocryphal story that hundreds of years ago, Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama followed a Gujarati trader to discover a sea route to India.

Whatever be the truth of this story, it does symbolize the historic initiative of the traders and merchants of Gujarat. Even today Gujarat is the land of the entrepreneur. Jamsetji Tata in the nineteenth century to Dhirubhai Ambani in the twentieth century to Gautam Adani’s rapid rise in the twenty-first, they all have Gujarat in common.

Entrepreneurship comes naturally to Gujarat and Modi nurtured it in his Gujarat days. Modi took over the State in 2001. He launched Vibrant Gujarat in 2003 where MoUs were signed for an investment for US$14 billion.

That number rapidly rose to US$462 billion in 2011. His critics say that only a fraction of that fructifies. But even that fraction is miles ahead of other states. Modi was very entrepreneur friendly in Gujarat and he’s rapidly replicating the same model for India.

Modi himself could be called an entrepreneur. While his selling tea on a railway platform is romanticized, his father had a tea stall at that time. Later Modi and his brother themselves set up a tea stall near a bus stand.

startup-593327_640Minimum Government Maximum Governance: While support from the government is one thing, the entrepreneur many a times just wants as little interference as possible. It may be possible to start a company in no time in many Western countries, but in India one may struggle for months on end without making any headway. The current government is trying to boost entrepreneurs by allowing a business to be incorporated with just one form. Called Form INC-29, the government is trying to enable fast track company registration. The application process for things like the Industrial Entrepreneur’s Memorandum has also been simplified.

The country’s License Raj from 1947 onwards stifled the entrepreneurial spirit and at that time only the first and last Indian Governor-General C Rajagopalachari cried foul. That system was dismantled by Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao from 1991 onwards, but not fully.

Modi seems to have started from where Rao left off. In fact the Planning Commission was seen part and parcel of the old regime and Modi has done away with that too for a more dynamic real-time planning which will help the fast-changing business landscape of India.

startup-2188679_640Myriad of targeted schemes: Startup India began with Rs 10,000 crore of funds and a sincere effort to reduce red tape for startups with even the Reserve Bank of India getting involved. Interestingly 5 lakh schools will be targeted for innovation programmes. Catch the entrepreneurs young is the mantra.

Make In India will help established business ramp up and new businesses to break out. Stand Up India involves loans of up to Rs 1 crore to those from the SC/ST bracket and women entrepreneurs.

The formation of the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship was an innovative concept. Skill India aims to train 40 crore people in various skills by 2022. This involves a National Policy for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship among other things.

Former US Secretary of State John Kerry once said that he was particularly impressed with Modi’s slogan of Sabka Saath Sabka Vikaas. These are some of the components of that concept.

parliament-2028311_640The GST push: For anyone wanting to start their business and immediately go pan-India, GST Goods and Services Tax Bill is a great boon. It proposes a national Value Added Tax and promises to lead to seamless transactions across States and lessening of harassment. The Octroi Raj may finally end.

Modi pushed GST with all his might despite all the opposition and Parliamentary disruptions. Modi has shown a willingness to push for anything he feels will ease business in the country and that will translate into great gains in the long run.

The main takeaway from this is that it’s not just GST, but you can be sure that Modi will push similar bills beneficial for entrepreneurs in the future. While there may be a lot of initial confusion vis-à-vis the GST, it will ultimately settle down to something really good.

hand-1030564_640Modi is a globe trotter: #Brexit and US President Donald Trump may have made globalization a dirty word, but it will continue in one form or another. In fact now one-on-one deals between countries will be more important than trade pacts.

That’s where Modi’s globe-trotting and chemistry between world leaders will be a real boon. Modi is making the world take notice of us. For the first time ever, India has emerged as the Number 1 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) destination in the world. India attracted FDI to the tune of $63 billion in 2015.

While there are mixed feelings about FDI helping or hindering local business, it may prove beneficial to start ups if handled correctly and they may get foreign investors and tie-ups. Though there are plenty of riders, nevertheless the government has allowed 100% FDI in the e-commerce space.

While we may see many ups and downs, the world is flat and in the long run Modi’s globalization drive will help new businesses coming out of India.

© Sunil Rajguru